The decision to cut or bulk should not be random. It should be based on your current body fat percentage, your training experience, and your goals for the next 3 to 6 months.
General guideline: if you are above 18 to 20% body fat as a male, cut first. Getting leaner improves insulin sensitivity, nutrient partitioning, and hormone balance. All of these make a subsequent bulk more effective.
If you are under 12 to 14%, you have room to bulk. A lean bulk with a modest surplus of 200 to 300 calories above maintenance will add muscle without excessive fat gain. Bigger surpluses build more fat, not more muscle.
For beginners, the decision is easier. If you are new to structured training, you can build muscle and lose fat simultaneously for the first 6 to 12 months regardless of whether you are in a surplus or deficit. This is the newbie gains window. Use it.
Do not bulk and cut in short 4-week cycles. Neither phase gets enough time to produce meaningful results. Commit to a minimum of 8 to 12 weeks in either direction before switching.
The biggest mistake people make is perpetually bulking because they are afraid to diet, or perpetually cutting because they are afraid to gain any fat. Both lead to spinning your wheels. Pick a phase, commit to it, execute it well, then switch.
Ready to stop guessing?
Get a personalized plan built around your goals, your body, and your life.